土工基础

›› 2014, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (4): 100-102.

• 工程实录 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于最优组合模型的路基沉降预测方法

丁建荣   

  1. (中铁第四勘察设计院集团有限公司，武汉 430063)
  • 收稿日期:2013-07-09 出版日期:2014-06-20 发布日期:2014-08-20
  • 作者简介:丁建荣（1964-），女，工程师，研究方向为铁路工程地质勘察、路基设计。

Embankment Settlement Prediction through an Optimization Model

DING Jianrong   

  1. （China Railway Siyuan Survey and Design Group Co. Ltd，Wuhan 430063）
  • Received:2013-07-09 Online:2014-06-20 Published:2014-08-20

摘要： 通过监测获取的沉降——时间数据进行拟合曲线分析，在高速铁路路基沉降预测中得到了广泛应用。路基工程沉降——时间曲线呈现反S形，但采用常规的反S形成长曲线模型预测路基沉降时，由于受到数据样本和模型自身的限制，预测的沉降曲线并不能完全反映实际沉降的发展过程。基于此，提出了基于不同类型的反S形成长曲线的最优组合预测模型，通过赋予各个反S形曲线模型权重系数，采用最优化方法求解权重系数，得到最终的路基沉降预测公式。实际工程数据分析表明，该方法精度较高、适应性较好，可适用于高速铁路路基沉降量预测。

关键词: 沉降预测, 反S形曲线, 权重组合方法, 武广高速铁路, 红黏土路基

Abstract: The settlement prediction through the observed settlement with time data have a wide application in the high speed rail embankment construction. The settlementtime relationship of an embankment is a reverse "S" shape. The conventional settlement prediction method using the observed data have the limitations from the model and from the sampling data. The predicted settlement can often not reflect the practical situation. An optimized model which combines the contribution of different reverse "S" shape models is proposed in this paper. Different weights are assigned to the different sample models through the optimization process. The settlement obtained through this method has a better prediction result and can be applied in the settlement prediction of high speed rail embankments.

Key words: Settlement Prediction, Reverse "S", Shapes, Optimization Model, WuhanGuangzhou HighSpeed Rail, Red Clay Embankment