土工基础

土工基础 ›› 2022, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 514-517.

• 工程实录 • 上一篇    下一篇

灰色-趋势最优加权组合模型在滑坡变形预测中的应用

李世贵1，严 韬2   

  1. （1.湖北省鄂西地质工程勘察院，湖北宜昌 443002；2.西北有色勘测工程有限责任公司，西安 710000）
  • 收稿日期:2021-02-25 修回日期:2021-04-20 出版日期:2022-08-30 发布日期:2022-08-25
  • 通讯作者: 严 韬（1986-），男，硕士，研究方向为岩土工程勘察设计。
  • 作者简介:李世贵(1985-)，男，硕士，工程师，研究方向为岩土工程勘察设计。
  • 基金资助:
    湖北省自然科学基金项目（2018CFB400）

Application of a Combined and Weighted Gray-Trend Optimal Model in Prediction of Landslide Deformation

LI Shigui1， YAN Tao2   

  1. (1.E’Xi Geological Engineering Investigation Institute, Yichang 443002；
    2.Northwest Nonferrous Metal Survey and Exploration Engineering Co. Ltd., Xi’an 710000)
  • Received:2021-02-25 Revised:2021-04-20 Online:2022-08-30 Published:2022-08-25

摘要： 滑坡灾害频发，机理极其复杂，而其发生时间又难以确定，有效的滑坡变形预测对预防和制定滑坡避险措施起着关键性的作用。针对当前单个变形预测模型自身存在的不足，利用三峡库区树坪滑坡2004年6月～2013年6月的累积水平变形监测资料，分别建立了灰色GM（2，1）预测模型、幂函数趋势曲线预测模型以及能够充分吸收多种单一模型优势的灰色趋势最优加权组合预测模型。研究结果表明，灰色趋势最优加权组合预测模型的预测精度和适应性最好，其最接近实际监测成果，证明该组合预测模型稳定、合理，可以用来预测库区乃至其他地区的滑坡变形。

关键词: 滑坡, 变形预测, 组合预测, 预测精度, 最优加权

Abstract: The effective prediction of the landslide deformation plays a key role in the prevention and formulation safety measures of engineering projects. The landslide hazards are frequently encountered, and the triggering mechanism is extremely complex, therefore, the time of landslide occurrence is difficult to predict. In the view of the shortcomings of the current single deformation prediction model, this paper proposes a combined and weight gray-trend optimal model GM (2,1) for the landslide prediction based on the accumulate deformation data of Shuping Landslide from June 2004 to June 2013. The results show that the combination forecasting method has the highest prediction accuracy and adaptability and is closest to the actual monitoring results. Therefore, the combined prediction model is stable and reasonable, it can be used to predict the landslide deformation in the reservoir area and even other areas.


中图分类号: