关键词: 水电站, 风险评价, 改进的模糊网络分析法

Abstract: The improved fuzzy network analysis method was applied to a comprehensive risk assessment of the construction phase risks in the NeelumJhelum Hydropower Project in Pakistan. The comprehensive and integrated analysis for risk factors and the reasonable risk assessment can help the contractors achieving the timely control the construction risks. With the combination of the Delphi Method, the Triangle Fuzzy Number method and the Network Analysis Method, an improved fuzzy network analysis method not only preserves the advantages of the network analysis method which can take the interaction of elements between various levels and the same level into consideration, but also increases “expertise” and fuzziness of the data. As a result, the innovative approach leads to a more accurate evaluation. Based on this comprehensive analysis on Pakistan's construction environment characteristics, the risk evaluation index system on the subject project has been established. And the improved fuzzy network analysis method has been employed to evaluate the risks in the construction stage of NeelumJhelum hydropower project in Pakistan. The evaluation results are identical with the most of the actual project risks that have been encountered during the construction stage, which can provide reference for the similar international projects in the future.

Key words: Hydropower Station, Risk Assessment, Improved Fuzzy Network Analysis