关键词: 沉降预测, 贝叶斯理论, 先验分布, 时间序列

Abstract: The analysis and prediction of settlement is one of the key issues in the foundation design practice. In many cases the settlement values from the theoretical analysis and the monitoring results are often not even close. Therefore, it is important to monitor the embankment settlement during the construction, and the embankment filling rate should be controlled by the settlement rate so that the safety of the embankment can be assured during the construction. The post construction settlement magnitude can also be predicted and mitigated based on the measured settlement during the construction. However, there are uncertainties in the settlement model parameters, it is more appropriate to describe the settlement pattern with probability and probability distribution methods. The parameters are described as random variables and the model is established based on the Bayesian theory using WinBUGS software in the time domain. The prediction results are compared with the observed values. It is concluded that this method is a reliable method.

Key words: ]Settlement Predictions, Bayesian Theory, Empirical Distribution, Time Domain